By Jack Arpey New York State

While immigration concerns and reproductive rights are among the top issues on voters’ minds as they head to the polls, experts say the outcome of the election could have a significant impact on child care policy when the current federal tax credit expires next year.

Pete Nabozny, director of policy at the Children’s Agenda, says that means a direct impact on families.

“If Congress does nothing, regardless of who the next president is, if they don’t come to an agreement, every family that receives a tax credit in New York would see their taxes rise, and they would lose a pretty significant amount,” he said.

While not the full picture, presidential candidates do have the power to set an agenda.

In 2017, former President Donald Trump doubled the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000, and raised the income cap. A 2021 temporary expansion increased it further.

The 2021 expansion bumped the credit up to $3,000 per child — $3,600 for children under the age of 6. But after reverting to 2017 levels the next year, that Trump-era increase will expire altogether if Congress and the president don’t act, sending it back down to $1,000 per child.

“That temporary expansion of the child tax credit, Kamala Harris has put forward as something she would like to make permanent,” Nabozny said.

While on the Republican side of the presidential race, there is less clear messaging.

“The Trump campaign has been a little quieter on this, though JD Vance has said he’d support a $5,000 child tax credit,” he said.

Kate Breslin, executive director of The Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy, emphasized that the 2021 bump had a significant impact on child poverty and so would additional expansion.

“We have clear evidence it helps families, it helps families who are struggling to make ends meet, it lifts people out of poverty and even for those who it doesn’t lift out of poverty, it helps them,” she said.

When it comes to the overall party platforms, the sticking point is who would receive the full amount and how they would get it.

Nabozny said Democrats tend to favor policy that directly addresses poverty by targeting those who make the least amount.

“They want people who are most likely to be in poverty and really struggling to be able to receive the maximum credit amount,” he said.

While Republicans have expressed concern that such a move could encourage people to not seek employment, and favor a tax credit that increases incrementally along with income.

“They are more concerned about using the tax code to encourage people to work, get a job and increase your earnings that way,” he said.

At the state level, three bills are still awaiting action from Gov. Kathy Hochul that would address tax law which makes it so people who make less than the minimum earning requirement can’t qualify for child care, roadblocks for parents who work inconsistent or irregular hours and legislation to allow for applicants to be presumed eligible so they can begin receiving child care while their paperwork is being processed.

Democratic Assemblymember Sarah Clark, who is facing Republican Orlando Rivera in the race for the 136th District, told Spectrum News 1 that should those bills be signed, next session, lawmakers hope to undertake an effort to tackle workforce development issues that are fueling the crisis in New York. Republican Assemblymember Brian Maher, who is running unopposed in the 101st District, said lawmakers are also preparing to hold a bipartisan round table to get feedback from providers directly.